This technique was developed by John Bollinger in the early 80's. Bollinger was based on mathematical formulas commonly used by statisticians to determine the standard deviations of the data series and adapted for use in the Forex Market. Bollinger bands are used to determine over-bought and over-sold levels.
The use of Bollinger bands Indicator is more effective when the Forex markets is without trend (ranging markets) and it is suggested that it should be applied in periods of 20 days but it may also be used even in periods of 50 days.
Bollinger bands consist of three lines drawn in relation to price action. These three lines are:
• The middle or central band: it is as a rule; a simple moving average and provides information on market trends. From the middle band it is calculated upper and lower bands by one standard deviation.
• The upper band: is equal to a moving average of 20 periods and 2 standard deviations above the moving average.
• The bottom band: is equal to a moving average of 20 periods and 2 standard deviations below the moving average.
How to use Bollinger bands to invest in Forex?
You can use this indicator to determine market volatility and relative prices for trading in Forex. You must start tracing the 3 lines in the graphs, which provide you with the indications of when you should buy and sell.
In Markets without trends the strategy is to sell in higher bands and compared in the lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower band will provide you with information on the volatility or market activity to trade. This means that the higher the volatility in the Forex market is, the higher the standard deviation and because of that the bands are a little broader. If on the contrary, it happens that there is less volatility in the market, the lower the standard deviation and thus the bands will be narrower.
On the other hand, if you notice that currency prices will break through the upper band, in the band that is contrary, we must expect a continuation of current trends in the market.
Calculate the moving average (MA) using the following formula:
MA = (P1+ ... + Pn)/n
Pn = Price at an interval n
n = Number of periods
• Subtract the moving average (MA) of each data point (p) used in calculating the moving average. This will give you a list of deviations (d):
• Finally, calculate the three Bollinger Bands using the following formulas:
Superior Band = MA + 2σ
Media Band = MA
Lower Band = MA-2σ
It is not recommend using this indicator in volatile markets. But if you do use the indicator, you should buy right on the break above the upper band and sell right on the break below the lower band. This is important if you notice that the bands shrink too fast (consolidation), it is likely to occur a violent break, a moment you can use trade.
Bollinger Bands provide you with 3 types of signals:
• Contractions (squeeze) means that there is less volatility in the market.
• Expansion (expansion) means that there is greater market volatility.
• 2.0 STDV close : Breakouts
What you should NEVER do?
• Never buy or sell without observing the candlestick patterns.
• Do not buy or sell if it has not detected a clear breakout of the market.
• Do not use this indicator in periods longer than 100 days.
• If prices touch the band alone, it does not mean that you should buy or sell. Never trade without a preliminary analysis.
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Remember that no investment is risk free and the Bollinger Band indicator in Forex will help you most effectively when it is used in conjunction with other tools.
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